| Резюме: |  Seven emerging economies are at risk of a crisis in the exchange rate. They are Sri Lanka, South Africa, Argentina, Pakistan, Egypt, Turkey and Ukraine, experts from Nomura Holdings, quoted by Bloomberg, said in an interview.
Five of them are already in a currency crisis or have launched a program of financial support from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), experts say. At the same time, however, according to one of the main analysts in the company Robert Subaraman, problems in neighboring Turkey do not pose a serious threat to Bulgaria. In his words, our country is among the emerging markets with the lowest risk of currency crisis alongside Brazil, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Peru, the Philippines, Russia and Thailand.
"It is important to note this because investors focus on the risk of emerging markets, and we have to point out that we can not put all of them in one group, with a long list of countries where the risk is very low" , is complemented by the analysis. To reach these conclusions, Nomura experts have used a method to account for a number of factors, such as debt levels, interest rates, and the exchange rate, to determine the extent to which emerging economies are in danger of going into crisis.
We recall that Turkey went through a rather tough August, during which the Turkish lira reached a historic bottom against the dollar and lost 40% of its value. As a result, the currency crisis in our southern neighbor has dragged behind a number of emerging markets around the world from South Africa to Indonesia. One of the major victims of the domino effect that has left Turkey is Argentina. The newly-stabilized South American country has fallen into a new crisis that has forced its central bank to raise its key interest rates to a record 60 percent. Evidence of the severe situation in Argentina is the collapse of the peso, which has fallen by 45 per cent since the beginning of 2018 and by another 24 per cent since the beginning of September. |